I have posted a lot of articles about nuclear weapons. Most of these have focused on high-tech atomic and hydrogen bombs built by nation states with huge investments of manpower and equipment. These do constitute the greatest threat to the future of humanity. However, there is another type of bomb that utilizes nuclear materials known as a “dirty bomb.” This is a low tech device which does not result in a nuclear or thermonuclear explosion. Conventional explosives are combined with a radioactive material and the explosion results in spreading the radioactive material over a wide area rendering it dangerous for human occupation. Even if all the nations get rid of all their nuclear weapons, the world is still under threat from non-state actors creating and using dirty bombs for purposes of terrorism.
There are many possible sources for radioactive materials that might be used in dirty bombs. Radioactive materials can be found in smoke alarms, various kinds of industrial sensors, medical equipment, etc. One of the greatest concerns is that radioactive materials created for use in nuclear reactors or for the creations of nuclear weapons might be stolen from their manfucturers. Control of such nuclear materials is very strick but the break up of the Soviet Union created opportunities for the loss of such materials. A great deal of the current enforcement efforts for control of nuclear materials is concentrated on highly refined and concentrated uranium or plutonium. There is a small risk that an unauthroized group with sufficient funding, facilities and expertise could construct a workable atomic bomb. The most likely scenario is that some group will make a dirty bomb.
The International Atomic Energy Agency of the United Nations is going to host a meeting in Vienna next week for representatives of over a hundred nations to discuss this problem.The IAEA maintains a Tracking Database for incidents involving unathorized access to, theft of, illegal transfers of or sabotage with nuclear materials. Between one hundred and fifty and two hundred incidents are reported to the IAEA each year. Most of these are not major security risks there are some reported incidents that involve uranium or plutonium. Some smugglers have become more sophiticated and are using shielded containers to try to avoid detection. Fortunately, the quantities of uranium and plutonium involved are grams and not kilograms. They would be sufficient for the creation of a dirty bomb but not an actual atomic bomb.
There are other possible ways of spreading nuclear materials that do not involve explosives. One such method would involve grinding up a few grams of plutonium, mixing it with gasoline and then driving around a city. The radioactivity in the exhaust from the vehicle would settle over the driving area and pose a threat to human health. Most likely, there would be no effective way to clean up the radiation and the city would have to be abandoned. While terrorists do like to have spectacular events to generate terror, the possibility of less dramatic methods of nuclear dispersal definitely exist.
